Who doesn’t love the hard brilliance of Nate Silver and his 538 staff. We dig into the numbers and try to see where the data leads us… or do we?
In a fairly long article, considering it’s the 9th installment, he comes to the conclusion that the liberal echo chamber never even considered a Trump victory, which probably biased poll analysis which then influences the media coverage even more and influences the next poll numbers slightly more off course.
You should go read the whole article over at 538, but for me the final paragraph wraps it up nicely.
Journalists should recalibrate themselves to be more skeptical of the consensus of their peers. That’s because a position that seems to have deep backing from the evidence may really just be a reflection from the echo chamber. You should be looking toward how much evidence there is for a particular position as opposed to how many people hold that position: Having 20 independent pieces of evidence that mostly point in the same direction might indeed reflect a powerful consensus, while having 20 like-minded people citing the same warmed-over evidence is much less powerful. Obviously this can be taken too far and in most fields, it’s foolish (and annoying) to constantly doubt the market or consensus view. But in a case like politics where the conventional wisdom can congeal so quickly — and yet has so often been wrong — a certain amount of contrarianism can go a long way.