Ladbrokes, an online betting site, gives about a 48% chance that Donald Trump will leave office by being impeached or resigning within the next four years. Another site, Paddy Power, offers about about a one-in-three chance that Trump will resign or be impeached in his first term.
But those are surely among the most boring Trump bets to make. When will Trump sack Sean Spicer, the beleaguered White House spokesman? (Paddy Power gives him a 64% chance of making it to 2018.) How about Trump’s chance for the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize? (Ladbrokes gives it a 1-in-100 chance.)
Trump-focused online bets span both low- and high-brow speculations. Paddy Power, for instance, lets you wager on whether the Supreme Court will reinstate Trump’s travel ban (a 75% chance it won’t)—as well as whether “Golden Shower footage [will] appear on RedTube” (20% odds).